What’s Real (Now)

  • Operationalization of entropy:
    – Converted Shannon entropy from a static definition into a rolling time-series per metric.
    – Demonstrated you can compute covariance between entropy streams and observe eigenvalue spikes.
  • Predictive signal:
    – Early experiments suggest eigenvalue spikes precede incidents in complex systems (Mongo CDC, Dynatrace, Splunk).
    – This provides a practical early-warning metric beyond threshold alerts.
  • Conceptual framing:
    – Defined “Ted’s Law of Karma”: shared fate is visible in the covariance of entropies.
    – Drafted a Maxwell-style formulation (continuity, constitutive law, Lyapunov evolution, alignment law).
  • Application principle:
    – Proposed “maternal instinct” bias: when systemic uncertainty aligns, systems should dampen actions → a concrete AI-safety reflex.

What’s Not Proven

  • Universality:
    – No evidence yet that entropy covariance modes apply beyond engineered systems (e.g., ecosystems, social dynamics, physics).
  • Formal theorem:
    – No mathematical proof that covariance eigenmodes necessarily precede cascades, only intuition + analogy.
  • Constants/invariants:
    – No discovery of system-independent constants (like (c) in electromagnetism). Current framework yields relative, system-specific propagation speeds.
  • Empirical validation:
    – No systematic experiments across multiple domains with statistical rigor. Current support is anecdotal/prototype-level.

Where This Could Go

  • Engineering impact: SRE/AI-ops tool for incident prediction and protective automation.
  • Scientific impact: If generalized, could become a new principle of complex systems stability.
  • Prize-worthy impact: Only if formalized into a universal law, validated across domains, and shown to yield invariants or predictive theory.

Blunt Summary

Right now, this is a strong engineering insight + a plausible scientific hypothesis.
It is not yet a theorem or universal law.
It’s Faraday-stage (pattern spotted, apparatus built), not Maxwell-stage (formal equations, universal constants).